Notice: We do not own any data shown here. All information is sourced from publicly available databases (SBP, PSX, PBS, FRED, World Bank, Yahoo Finance). This platform exists solely to educate users on how macroeconomic indicators interact. Not investment advice.
Pakistan Composite Risk Score
39
MODERATE
Improved to 39. Eurobond reserve surge offsetting inflation pressure.
Prev: 42▼ -3 ptsTrend: Improving
Risk Dimension Breakdown
Sub-Scores (0-100, higher = more risk)
Pakistan Key Indicators
SBP Policy RateHOLD
11.50%
UnchangedMPC Sep 14CPI Inflation (YoY)ACCELERATING
11.1%
+1.9pp vs JulyFX Reserves (SBP)SURGE
$21.39B
+$3.06B WoWKSE-100 IndexRECOVERING
170,885
+1.2% vs Sep 10Global Risk Pulse
Gold (XAU/USD)PULLBACK
$4,320.00
-1.8% vs Sep 10+18.8% YoYUS Dollar Index (DXY)STRENGTHENING
100.22
+1.3% vs Sep 10VIX (Fear Index)CALMING
14.81
-2.6% vs Sep 10US 10Y TreasuryMULTI-YEAR HIGH
4.95%
+2bp vs Sep 10
● Global market data (Gold, DXY, VIX, US 10Y) refreshes live on every page load via Yahoo Finance API.
● Pakistan macro data updates on official release schedule (SBP weekly, PBS monthly).
Pakistan Risk Heat Map
| Indicator | Now | Trend |
|---|
Low Risk (0-30)
Moderate (31-50)
Caution (51-70)
High Risk (71-100)
Score: 0-100 risk scale. Higher = more risk. Read left-to-right to see how each indicator evolved over 6 months.
Data-Driven Risk Analysis
📊 What Public Data Tells Us About Pakistan
Current regime: External stabilization accelerating, but inflation re-accelerating. SBP-reported FX reserves surged to $21.39B (as of Sep 11, 2026) following receipt of $3B Eurobond proceeds - a $3.06B weekly jump. Total liquid reserves hit $26.79B. However, PBS-reported headline CPI re-accelerated to 11.1% in August (from 9.2% in July), with core NFNE at 8.8% confirming sticky underlying pressures. The SBP held policy rate at 11.5% on Sep 14, maintaining a barely positive real rate of ~0.4%. The KSE-100 recovered to 170,885 (+1.2%). Educational note: Verify with SBP.gov.pk and PSX.com.pk.
📊 How Global Public Data Relates to Pakistan
Gold at ~$4,320 has pulled back further amid stronger DXY (100.22) and US 10Y at 4.95% (multi-year high). For Pakistan, the stronger dollar increases external debt servicing burden, but the Eurobond issuance shows markets are still willing to lend to Pakistan at premium rates. The US 10Y at 4.95% (FRED data) is at the 98th percentile - the most restrictive level for EM borrowing since 2007. VIX at 14.81 (Cboe) has calmed from mid-September spikes. Educational note: These are aggregated public indicators.
Pakistan Macroeconomic & Stock Market Trajectory
Pakistan GDP Growth vs InflationStagflation Risk
Pakistan FX Reserves Trajectory ($B)Surging
Pakistan Stock Market & Economy Indicator Detail
| Indicator | Latest | Previous | YoY | Status | Trend | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth (FY26) | 3.7% | 3.1% | +3.7pp | On Track | ▲ Improving | Q1 FY27 |
| CPI Inflation (Aug) | 11.1% | 9.2% | +8.0pp | Above Target | ▲ Rising | Sep (Oct 10) |
| Core NFNE (Aug) | 8.8% | 8.5% | +0.3pp | Sticky | ▲ Rising | Sep (Oct 10) |
| SBP Policy Rate | 11.5% | 11.5% | -150bp | On Hold | ▼ Paused | MPC Nov 2026 |
| FX Reserves (SBP) | $21.39B | $18.33B | +56% | Surging | ▲ Rising | Weekly |
| Total Liquid Reserves | $26.79B | $23.72B | +48% | Record | ▲ Rising | Weekly |
| Current Account (FY26) | -0.03% GDP | -0.8% | +0.77pp | Surplus | ▲ Improving | Monthly |
| Fiscal Deficit (FY26) | 0.7% | 7.3% | -6.6pp | Disciplined | ▼ Falling | Q4 |
| Public Debt (% GDP) | ~67% | 72% | -5pp | Elevated | ▼ Declining | Annual |
| Remittances (FY26) | $35.2B | $31.2B | +13% | Strong | ▲ Rising | Monthly |
| KSE-100 Index | 170,885 | 168,865 | +8.1% | Recovering | ▲ Rising | Real-time |
| PKR/USD | ~278 | 277.35 | -2.1% | Stable | ▼ Slight Dep | Real-time |
| KIBOR 6M | 11.8% | 11.7% | -180bp | Stable | ▼ Falling | Daily |
| T-bill 3M Yield | 11.2% | 11.1% | - | Stable | ▼ Falling | Weekly |
| PIB 10Y Yield | 12.1% | 12.0% | - | Elevated | ▲ Rising | Weekly |
Global Macro Monitor - Pakistan Investment Context
Gold (XAU/USD) - 1 YearConsolidating
Data Analysis: Gold has pulled back from Jan 2026 ATH of $5,608 to ~$4,320. The 18.8% YoY gain reflects persistent safe-haven demand, but stronger DXY (100.22) and US 10Y at 4.95% are creating headwinds. 50-day SMA is declining. Watch: $4,200 support and $4,400 resistance.
US Dollar Index (DXY) - 1 YearStrengthening
Data Analysis: DXY at 100.22 has rebounded from August lows (~98.7). The Fed's Sep 16 rate hike (first since 2023) drove dollar strength. For Pakistan, this increases rupee cost of dollar-denominated debt servicing. However, Pakistan's recent $3B Eurobond shows market access remains open at premium rates. Watch: 100.4 resistance.
VIX - 1 YearCalming
US 10Y Treasury Yield - 1 YearMulti-Year High
Cross-Country Risk Comparison
Pakistan Gold Price Monitor & Risk Analysis
XAU/USD SpotPULLBACK
$4,320.00
ATH: $5,608 (Jan 2026)
PKR Gold / Tola (Est.)ELEVATED
Rs 285,000
+21% vs PKR/USD YoY
Pakistan Gold PremiumHIGH
+4.5%
Above 3% threshold
Real Gold Return (vs CPI)POSITIVE
+10.0%
Gold outpacing Pakistan inflation
Gold Price Trajectory (1 Year)
📊 Reading Gold Data in Pakistan Context
1. Depreciation Hedge: With PKR/USD stable (~278) but gold up 18.8% YoY, local gold prices remain elevated. The PKR gold return is approximately +21% YoY in rupee terms, outpacing Pakistan CPI at 11.1%.
2. Premium Signal: The 4.5% premium suggests strong physical demand. With SBP reserves now at $21.39B, FX control tightness may ease, potentially reducing the premium.
3. Reserve Impact: Higher local premiums + record reserves = possible informal channel flows. Watch for SBP gold import policy changes.
4. Correlation Regime: Gold/KSE-100 correlation remains weak at -0.15. Diversification benefit is limited in stress scenarios.
2. Premium Signal: The 4.5% premium suggests strong physical demand. With SBP reserves now at $21.39B, FX control tightness may ease, potentially reducing the premium.
3. Reserve Impact: Higher local premiums + record reserves = possible informal channel flows. Watch for SBP gold import policy changes.
4. Correlation Regime: Gold/KSE-100 correlation remains weak at -0.15. Diversification benefit is limited in stress scenarios.
Trend & Pattern Analysis - Pakistan Market
Pakistan Inflation Momentum (YoY %)Re-accelerating
Data Observation: PBS-reported CPI re-accelerated to 11.1% in August (from 9.2% in July). This is a significant +1.9pp monthly jump. Core NFNE at 8.8% confirms underlying pressures are sticky and broad-based. Trimmed inflation also rose to 8.9% (urban). Risk: With Aug CPI at 11.1% and core sticky, SBP may need to hold or hike at the November MPC.
Pakistan FX Reserves Trajectory ($B)Surging
Data Observation: SBP reserves surged $3.06B to $21.39B (week ended Sep 11) following $3B Eurobond proceeds. Total liquid reserves hit $26.79B. At current import levels (~$4.5B/month), SBP reserve coverage is now ~4.8 months - approaching the 6-month comfort zone. This is the highest SBP reserve level since 2022.
Gold vs DXY - Data Divergence DetectionInverse Pattern
Data Pattern: Gold pulling back to ~$4,320 while DXY strengthened to 100.22 - classic inverse relationship reasserting. The Fed's Sep 16 rate hike drove both: higher yields + stronger dollar = lower gold. For Pakistan, the stronger dollar increases import costs, but the record reserve buffer ($21.39B) provides insulation.
Pakistan Risk Score 6-Month TrajectoryImproving
Data Observation: PCRS improved from 42 (Sep 10) to 39 (Sep 20), driven by the massive SBP reserve surge ($18.33B to $21.39B) and KSE-100 recovery. Inflation worsened (9.2% to 11.1%) but was more than offset by external stabilization. Inflection watch: If Sep CPI prints below 11% and reserves hold above $20B, score could improve to 35 by year-end.
Anomaly Detection - Pakistan Market
Anomaly Detection Dashboard
Statistical outlier scanning across 40+ Pakistan indicators.
FX Reserves: Normal (Surge)
CPI: Elevated
KSE-100: Recovering
Gold Premium: Watch
Understanding Pakistan Risk - Using Public Data
Pakistan Composite Risk Score
39 / 100
How to read this: Using publicly available data from SBP, PBS, PSX, and World Bank, we calculate a composite risk score. The current reading of 39 places Pakistan in the "Moderate" regime (21-40 band). Higher = more risk.
Score Trajectory: Improved from 42 (Sep 10) to 39 (Sep 20), a -7% improvement in 10 days. The primary driver is the SBP reserve surge from $18.33B to $21.39B following $3B Eurobond issuance. Inflation re-acceleration (9.2% to 11.1%) partially offset the improvement.
vs Historical: Current score of 39 is well below the FY2023 crisis average of 65 (reserves hit $9.9B, inflation peaked at 30.8%), and approaching the FY2021 expansion average of 28 (GDP grew 6.5%, reserves were $22.8B).
Dimension Score Breakdown
| Dimension | Risk | Weight | Weighted | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| External Vulnerability | 20 | 25% | 5.0 | Surging (Reserves) |
| Fiscal Health | 35 | 25% | 8.8 | Improving (Eurobond) |
| Inflation/Monetary | 65 | 20% | 13.0 | Worsening (CPI 11.1%) |
| Growth Momentum | 42 | 15% | 6.3 | Mixed (KSE recovering) |
| Market Stress | 40 | 10% | 4.0 | Calming (VIX down) |
| Gold/Safe Haven | 32 | 5% | 1.6 | Neutral |
| Composite (PCRS) | 39 | 100% | 38.7 | Moderate |
External Vulnerability Analysis (Risk: 20 — LOWEST)
The safest dimension and primary driver of score improvement. SBP FX reserves surged to $21.39B (week ended Sep 11, 2026) from $18.33B the prior week - a $3.06B jump driven by $3B Eurobond proceeds. Total liquid foreign exchange reserves hit $26.79B, the highest since 2022. At current monthly import levels (~$4.5B), SBP reserve coverage is now ~4.8 months - approaching the 6-month comfort zone.
The current account remains effectively balanced at -0.03% of GDP, with remittances at a record $35.2B. However, the DXY has strengthened to 100.22 (from 98.95), increasing the rupee cost of dollar-denominated debt servicing. PKR/USD has held near 278 despite dollar strength.
Quantitative concern: The Eurobond proceeds are one-off. Sustained reserve levels above $20B require continued IMF compliance and consistent remittance inflows. The 4th IMF review remains critical.
The current account remains effectively balanced at -0.03% of GDP, with remittances at a record $35.2B. However, the DXY has strengthened to 100.22 (from 98.95), increasing the rupee cost of dollar-denominated debt servicing. PKR/USD has held near 278 despite dollar strength.
Quantitative concern: The Eurobond proceeds are one-off. Sustained reserve levels above $20B require continued IMF compliance and consistent remittance inflows. The 4th IMF review remains critical.
Fiscal Health Analysis (Risk: 35 — LOW)
Improving on Eurobond proceeds, but US yield spike is a constraint. The fiscal deficit remains at 0.7% of GDP (FY26) - a 6.6pp improvement from FY25. Public debt has declined to approximately 67% of GDP.
The $3B Eurobond issuance (at ~8.75% coupon, 10-year maturity) demonstrates Pakistan retains market access, but at a significant premium to pre-2022 levels. US 10Y yields at 4.95% (multi-year high) keep global financing conditions tight. The real 10-year US yield of ~2.3% is the highest since 2009.
Quantitative watch: Pakistan's external debt servicing burden increases by approximately $400-500M for every 100bp rise in US 10Y yields. At 4.95%, refinancing risk is elevated. The next Eurobond maturity is $1B in March 2027.
The $3B Eurobond issuance (at ~8.75% coupon, 10-year maturity) demonstrates Pakistan retains market access, but at a significant premium to pre-2022 levels. US 10Y yields at 4.95% (multi-year high) keep global financing conditions tight. The real 10-year US yield of ~2.3% is the highest since 2009.
Quantitative watch: Pakistan's external debt servicing burden increases by approximately $400-500M for every 100bp rise in US 10Y yields. At 4.95%, refinancing risk is elevated. The next Eurobond maturity is $1B in March 2027.
Inflation & Monetary Analysis (Risk: 65 — HIGHEST)
The most dangerous dimension and primary risk to the improving score. CPI inflation re-accelerated sharply to 11.1% in August (from 9.2% in July) - a +1.9pp monthly jump. Core NFNE at 8.8% confirms underlying price pressures remain sticky and broad-based. Trimmed mean inflation also rose to 8.9% (urban).
The SBP held the policy rate at 11.5% on Sep 14, producing a barely positive real rate of ~0.4% (11.5% - 11.1%). With core at 8.8% and headline re-accelerating, the SBP faces a dilemma: hike to control inflation (hurting growth) or hold to support the nascent recovery (risking inflation entrenchment).
Historical context: Pakistan's inflation risk has only been higher (above 65) during three episodes: (1) 2008 oil shock, (2) 2020 COVID supply disruption, and (3) 2023 post-flood crisis. The current 65 reading is the 4th highest in 20 years.
The SBP held the policy rate at 11.5% on Sep 14, producing a barely positive real rate of ~0.4% (11.5% - 11.1%). With core at 8.8% and headline re-accelerating, the SBP faces a dilemma: hike to control inflation (hurting growth) or hold to support the nascent recovery (risking inflation entrenchment).
Historical context: Pakistan's inflation risk has only been higher (above 65) during three episodes: (1) 2008 oil shock, (2) 2020 COVID supply disruption, and (3) 2023 post-flood crisis. The current 65 reading is the 4th highest in 20 years.
Growth Momentum Analysis (Risk: 42)
Mixed signals with market recovery offsetting structural concerns. Real GDP growth at 3.7% (FY26) is an improvement from 3.1% in FY25. The KSE-100 has recovered to 170,885 (+1.2% from Sep 10 lows), trading at a PER of 7.9x and dividend yield of ~6.7% - attractive by historical standards.
However, credit to the private sector remains sluggish at ~8% YoY, below nominal GDP growth. M2 growth at ~12% is consistent with SBP targets. The PMI manufacturing index at 47.8 (Aug) remains in contraction, suggesting industrial activity is still weak.
KSE-100 context: The recovery from 168,865 to 170,885 reflects optimism around the reserve surge and Eurobond success. However, if inflation forces SBP to hike in November, the index could retest 165,000.
However, credit to the private sector remains sluggish at ~8% YoY, below nominal GDP growth. M2 growth at ~12% is consistent with SBP targets. The PMI manufacturing index at 47.8 (Aug) remains in contraction, suggesting industrial activity is still weak.
KSE-100 context: The recovery from 168,865 to 170,885 reflects optimism around the reserve surge and Eurobond success. However, if inflation forces SBP to hike in November, the index could retest 165,000.
Global Economic Context - Public Data Analysis
Global Risk Pulse Index
38 / 100
How to read this: Using publicly available data from FRED, Trading Economics, and Yahoo Finance. The current reading of 38 indicates "Moderate Stress" (21-40 band).
Key Characteristic: The Fed raised rates 25bp on Sep 16 (first hike since 2023), driving DXY to 100.22 and US 10Y to 4.95%. Global manufacturing remains weak (PMI 49.8).
Impact on Pakistan: The global risk pulse of 38 is net neutral. Stronger DXY increases debt pressure, but Pakistan's $3B Eurobond shows market access at premium rates.
Global Indicator Matrix
| Indicator | Current | 12M Range | Percentile | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,320 | $3,600-$5,608 | 62nd | Elevated |
| DXY | 100.22 | 96.6-100.4 | 85th | Strengthening |
| VIX | 14.81 | 12.5-22.2 | 25th | Calm |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.95% | 3.6%-4.8% | 99th | Multi-Year High |
| Brent Crude | ~$82 | $68-$92 | 55th | Neutral |
| Global PMI | 49.8 | 48.5-52.1 | 30th | Contraction |
US Monetary Policy & Treasury Market
The dominant global risk factor for Pakistan. The Fed raised rates 25bp on Sep 16, 2026 - the first hike since 2023. The US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.95% sits at the 99th percentile of its 12-month range. The real 10-year yield is approximately 2.4% - the highest since 2009.
For Pakistan: At 4.95%, Pakistan's access to international capital markets is extremely expensive. The recent $3B Eurobond was issued at ~8.75% - a 380bp spread over US 10Y. Every 100bp rise in US 10Y increases Pakistan's external debt servicing by ~$400-500M annually. The next $1B Eurobond maturity is March 2027.
For Pakistan: At 4.95%, Pakistan's access to international capital markets is extremely expensive. The recent $3B Eurobond was issued at ~8.75% - a 380bp spread over US 10Y. Every 100bp rise in US 10Y increases Pakistan's external debt servicing by ~$400-500M annually. The next $1B Eurobond maturity is March 2027.
US Dollar & EM Capital Flows
The DXY at 100.22 has strengthened sharply. The dollar index jumped from ~98.7 in August to 100.22 following the Fed rate hike. This reflects: (1) the Fed's hawkish pivot, (2) safe-haven demand amid Middle East tensions, and (3) widening US-EU rate differentials.
For Pakistan: The stronger dollar increases the rupee cost of external debt servicing. However, Pakistan's $21.39B reserve buffer provides significant insulation. The PKR has held near 278 despite dollar strength, suggesting SBP intervention is effective. If DXY breaks above 100.4, watch for PKR pressure.
For Pakistan: The stronger dollar increases the rupee cost of external debt servicing. However, Pakistan's $21.39B reserve buffer provides significant insulation. The PKR has held near 278 despite dollar strength, suggesting SBP intervention is effective. If DXY breaks above 100.4, watch for PKR pressure.
Cross-Market Correlation Matrix
Rolling 90-day correlations
| Pair | Correlation | vs 5Y Avg | Regime Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold / KSE-100 | -0.15 | +0.05 | Weak diversification |
| PKR/USD / DXY | +0.65 | +0.11 | Normal FX transmission |
| VIX / Pakistan CDS | +0.32 | -0.33 | Decoupling |
| US 10Y / KSE-100 | -0.52 | -0.16 | High sensitivity |
| Gold / DXY | -0.35 | -0.02 | Normal inverse |
| Brent / PKR/USD | +0.40 | +0.07 | Oil pressure |
📄 Technical Document: PSXAI Risk Analyzer Platform
▼
1. Executive Summary
PSXAI Risk Analyzer is a free educational tool that aggregates publicly available macroeconomic data from sources including SBP, PSX, PBS, FRED, World Bank, and Yahoo Finance. The platform applies statistical methods (z-score normalization, correlation analysis) to publicly released data to create visual risk scores and trend indicators. We do not own, license, or control any of the underlying data. All information is sourced from public databases. PSXAI is not a registered securities adviser under SECP regulations and does not provide investment advice.
2. SRO Compliance Framework
PSXAI Risk Analyzer operates as an educational data aggregator in compliance with SECP guidelines:
- No Investment Advice: We do not recommend specific securities, bonds, gold products, or portfolio allocations.
- No Portfolio Management: We do not manage client assets or provide wealth management services.
- Educational Data Aggregation: All outputs are visualizations of publicly available data.
- Source Attribution: All data cites primary public sources (SBP, PBS, PSX, FRED, World Bank).
- No Data Ownership: We do not own, create, or control any data.
3. Pakistan Composite Risk Score (PCRS)
PCRS = 25% x External + 25% x Fiscal + 20% x Inflation/Monetary
+ 15% x Growth + 10% x MarketStress + 5% x Gold/SafeHaven
Normalization: z = (x - mu) / sigma [10-year panel, capped at +/- 3 sigma]
Sub-score = 50 - 16.67 x z [0-100 risk scale, higher = more risk]
Interpretation:
0-20 = Strong/Low Risk (Expansion regime)
21-40 = Moderate (Stable regime)
41-60 = Elevated/Caution (Transition regime)
61-80 = High Risk (Stressed regime)
81-100 = Severe Risk (Crisis regime)
4. Data Sources We Aggregate
| Public Source | Data We Aggregate | Frequency | License |
|---|---|---|---|
| State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) | Policy rates, FX reserves, monetary aggregates, KIBOR | Weekly/Monthly | Public |
| Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) | KSE-100, sector indices, market data | Real-time | Public |
| Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) | CPI, LSM, trade, GDP | Monthly/Quarterly | Public |
| Ministry of Finance (MoF) | Fiscal deficit, debt, budget | Monthly/Quarterly | Public |
| FRED (Federal Reserve) | US macro, Treasury yields | Real-time | Public / Open Data |
| Yahoo Finance | Gold, DXY, VIX, equity indices | Real-time | Public API |
| Trading Economics | Global macro, EM data | Daily | Public |
| World Bank Open Data | GDP, debt, trade, development indicators | Quarterly/Annual | CC BY 4.0 |
| IMF WEO | Debt sustainability, GDP forecasts | Quarterly/Annual | Public |
5. Compliance Framework
- No portfolio recommendations: Risk scores and directional signals only
- No specific securities: No stock picks, bond recommendations, or target prices
- Data attribution: Every indicator cites primary source
- Disclaimer: "Informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice."
Data Source & Compliance Disclaimer: PSXAI Risk Analyzer does not own, license, or control any of the data displayed on this platform. All information is sourced from publicly available databases including SBP, PSX, PBS, FRED, Yahoo Finance, World Bank Open Data, and Trading Economics. We are not a registered securities adviser, broker, or portfolio manager under SECP regulations. We do not provide investment advice, portfolio recommendations, buy/sell recommendations, or securities research. This platform exists solely to aggregate public macroeconomic data into visual formats for educational purposes. Users must independently verify all data with primary sources and consult licensed financial professionals before making any financial decisions. Past performance of indicators does not guarantee future outcomes.