Notice: We do not own any data shown here. All information is sourced from publicly available databases (SBP, PSX, PBS, FRED, World Bank, Yahoo Finance). This platform exists solely to educate users on how macroeconomic indicators interact. Not investment advice.
Pakistan Composite Risk Score
42
ELEVATED CAUTION
Mixed signals: FX reserves building but inflation elevated
Prev: 45▼ -3 ptsTrend: Improving
Risk Dimension Breakdown
Sub-Scores (0-100, higher = more risk)
Pakistan Key Indicators
SBP Policy RateHOLD
11.50%
UnchangedMPC Sep 14CPI Inflation (YoY)ELEVATED
11.1%
+8.1pp vs targetFX Reserves (SBP)IMPROVING
$18.4B
+34% YoYKSE-100 IndexRANGE-BOUND
175,384
+13.7% YoYGlobal Risk Pulse
Gold (XAU/USD)RISK-OFF BID
$4,476.60
-0.34% 1d+5.53% 1MUS Dollar Index (DXY)STABLE
99.16
+0.16% 1dVIX (Fear Index)COMPLACENT
14.53
+1.47% 1dUS 10Y TreasuryRESTRICTIVE
4.78%
+0.46% 1dPakistan Risk Heat Map
| Indicator | Now | Trend |
|---|
Low Risk (0-30)
Moderate (31-50)
Caution (51-70)
High Risk (71-100)
Score: 0-100 risk scale. Higher = more risk. Read left-to-right to see how each indicator evolved over 6 months.
Data-Driven Risk Analysis
📊 What Public Data Tells Us About Pakistan
Current regime: Stagflationary pressures with external stabilization. SBP-reported FX reserves recovered to $18.4B (+34% YoY) on IMF compliance and remittance inflows. However, PBS-reported headline CPI at 11.1% (June 2026) is significantly above the SBP target band of 5-7%. The SBP holds policy rate at 11.5%, maintaining a modest positive real rate of ~0.4%. The 4th IMF review (September) is the key near-term catalyst. PSX data shows KSE-100 PER at 8.0x. Educational note: These are publicly reported figures - verify with SBP.gov.pk and PSX.com.pk.
📊 How Global Public Data Relates to Pakistan
Gold at $4,477 (Yahoo Finance) reflects persistent safe-haven demand. For those studying Pakistan markets, public data shows a dual dynamic: (1) rising gold prices increase local rupee cost of gold imports, pressuring reserves; (2) gold acts as a natural hedge for PKR depreciation. The DXY at 99.16 (FRED data) is subdued. However, US 10Y at 4.78% (FRED data) keeps global risk-free rates elevated. VIX at 14.53 (Yahoo Finance) suggests calm markets. Educational note: These are aggregated public indicators - we do not generate or own this data.
Pakistan Macroeconomic & Stock Market Trajectory
Pakistan GDP Growth vs InflationStagflation Risk
Pakistan FX Reserves Trajectory ($B)Recovering
Pakistan Stock Market & Economy Indicator Detail
| Indicator | Latest | Previous | YoY | Status | Trend | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth (FY26) | 3.7% | 3.1% | +3.7pp | On Track | ▲ Improving | Q1 FY27 |
| CPI Inflation (Jun) | 11.1% | 3.0% | +8.1pp | Above Target | ▲ Rising | Aug (Sep 10) |
| Core NFNE (Jul) | 8.5% | 8.1% | - | Sticky | ▲ Rising | Aug (Sep 10) |
| SBP Policy Rate | 11.5% | 11.5% | -150bp | On Hold | ▼ Paused | MPC Sep 14 |
| FX Reserves (SBP) | $18.4B | $17.0B | +34% | Building | ▲ Rising | Weekly |
| Current Account (FY26) | -0.03% GDP | -0.8% | +0.77pp | Surplus | ▲ Improving | Monthly |
| Fiscal Deficit (FY26) | 0.7% | 7.3% | -6.6pp | Disciplined | ▼ Falling | Q4 |
| Public Debt (% GDP) | ~67% | 72% | -5pp | Elevated | ▼ Declining | Annual |
| Remittances (FY26) | $35.2B | $31.2B | +13% | Strong | ▲ Rising | Monthly |
| KSE-100 Index | 175,384 | 174,930 | +13.7% | Range | ▼ Sideways | Real-time |
| PKR/USD | ~278 | 277.5 | -2.1% | Stable | ▼ Slight Dep | Real-time |
| KIBOR 6M | 11.8% | 11.7% | -180bp | Stable | ▼ Falling | Daily |
| T-bill 3M Yield | 11.2% | 11.1% | - | Stable | ▼ Falling | Weekly |
| PIB 10Y Yield | 12.1% | 12.0% | - | Elevated | ▲ Rising | Weekly |
Global Macro Monitor - Pakistan Investment Context
Gold (XAU/USD) - 1 YearConsolidating
Data Analysis: Yahoo Finance data shows gold pulled back from Jan 2026 ATH of $5,608 to $4,477. The 23.4% YoY gain reflects persistent safe-haven demand amid Middle East tensions and Fed uncertainty. 50-day SMA ($4,292) is rising, suggesting medium-term support. Watch: $4,280 support and $4,650 resistance.
US Dollar Index (DXY) - 1 YearSubdued
Data Analysis: FRED data shows DXY at 99.16 is near the lower end of its 12-month range (96.6-100.4). A weaker dollar is constructive for Pakistan's external debt servicing. However, if US 10Y yields remain elevated (>4.5%), the dollar could strengthen on safe-haven flows. Watch: Break below 97.0 or above 100.0 as regime change signals.
VIX - 1 YearLow Volatility
US 10Y Treasury Yield - 1 YearRestrictive
Cross-Country Risk Comparison
Pakistan Gold Price Monitor & Risk Analysis
XAU/USD SpotCONSOLIDATION
$4,476.60
ATH: $5,608 (Jan 2026)
PKR Gold / Tola (Est.)ELEVATED
Rs 295,000
+2.1% vs yesterday
Pakistan Gold PremiumHIGH
+4.8%
Above 3% threshold
Real Gold Return (vs CPI)POSITIVE
+12.3%
Gold outpacing Pakistan inflation
Gold Price Trajectory (1 Year)
📊 Reading Gold Data in Pakistan Context
1. Depreciation Hedge: With PKR/USD stable (~278) but gold up 23.4% YoY, local gold prices have surged disproportionately. The PKR gold return is approximately +25% YoY in rupee terms, significantly outpacing Pakistan CPI at 11.1%. This validates gold's role as a purchasing power preserver for Pakistan investors.
2. Premium Signal: The 4.8% premium of local gold over implied global price suggests strong physical demand and potential FX control tightness. Historically, premiums >5% precede SBP import restriction measures on gold.
3. Reserve Impact: Pakistan's gold imports (PBS data) have been volatile. High local premiums + rising reserves = possible informal channel (hawala) gold flows. This is a hidden current account risk not captured in official Pakistan trade data.
4. Correlation Regime: Gold/KSE-100 correlation at -0.15 indicates weak diversification benefit. In stress scenarios, both could fall together if PKR comes under pressure and foreign investors exit Pakistan equities simultaneously.
2. Premium Signal: The 4.8% premium of local gold over implied global price suggests strong physical demand and potential FX control tightness. Historically, premiums >5% precede SBP import restriction measures on gold.
3. Reserve Impact: Pakistan's gold imports (PBS data) have been volatile. High local premiums + rising reserves = possible informal channel (hawala) gold flows. This is a hidden current account risk not captured in official Pakistan trade data.
4. Correlation Regime: Gold/KSE-100 correlation at -0.15 indicates weak diversification benefit. In stress scenarios, both could fall together if PKR comes under pressure and foreign investors exit Pakistan equities simultaneously.
Trend & Pattern Analysis - Pakistan Market
Pakistan Inflation Momentum (YoY %)Accelerating
Data Observation: PBS-reported inflation re-accelerated from 3.0% (Aug 2025) to 11.1% (Jun 2026). The 6-month ROC is +8.1pp - a sharp reversal. Base effects from FY25's disinflation are now unwinding. Core NFNE at 8.5% (Jul) suggests underlying price pressures remain sticky. Risk: If Aug CPI >11.5%, SBP may hike, reversing the Pakistan easing cycle and pressuring KSE-100 valuations.
Pakistan FX Reserves Trajectory ($B)Stabilizing
Data Observation: SBP-reported reserves recovered from $9.9B crisis low (2022) to $18.4B. At current import levels (~$4.5B/month), coverage is ~4.1 months - above the 3-month danger zone but below the 6-month comfort zone. SBP target of $20.2B by Dec 2026 implies continued IMF compliance. Alert: Any weekly drop >$300M triggers amber flag.
Gold vs DXY - Data Divergence DetectionUnusual Pattern
Data Pattern: Public gold and DXY data show both have been stable recently - unusual co-existence. Historically, gold rallies on DXY weakness. The current flat DXY + flat gold suggests markets are in "wait-and-see" mode ahead of Sep FOMC. For Pakistan market observers, this means no immediate FX pressure from dollar strength, but also no gold windfall from dollar collapse.
Pakistan Risk Score 6-Month TrajectoryDeteriorating
Data Observation: PCRS (calculated from public data) moved from 68 (Mar 2026) to 58 (Sep 2026), driven by inflation re-acceleration and KSE-100 sideways drift. External and fiscal scores improved (reserves up, deficit down), but monetary stress is offsetting. Inflection watch: If Pakistan inflation peaks in Q3 and SBP holds, score could recover to 65+ by year-end - positive for Pakistan stock market sentiment.
Anomaly Detection - Pakistan Market
Anomaly Detection Dashboard
Statistical outlier scanning across 40+ Pakistan indicators. No anomalies currently flagged above 2-sigma threshold.
FX Reserves: Normal
CPI: Elevated
KSE-100: Normal
Gold Premium: Watch
Understanding Pakistan Risk - Using Public Data
Pakistan Composite Risk Score
42 / 100
How to read this: Using publicly available data from SBP, PBS, PSX, and World Bank, we calculate a composite risk score. The current reading of 42 places Pakistan in a "Transition Regime" (41-60 band). Higher = more risk.
Score Trajectory: Improved from 32 (Mar 2026) to 42 (Sep 2026), a +31% improvement over 6 months. The primary driver is inflation re-acceleration.
vs Historical: Current score of 42 is below the FY2023 crisis average of 65 (reserves hit $9.9B, inflation peaked at 30.8%), but above the FY2021 expansion average of 28 (GDP grew 6.5%, reserves were $22.8B).
Dimension Score Breakdown
| Dimension | Risk | Weight | Weighted | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| External Vulnerability | 28 | 25% | 7.0 | Stable |
| Fiscal Health | 32 | 25% | 8.0 | Improving |
| Inflation/Monetary | 58 | 20% | 11.6 | Deteriorating |
| Growth Momentum | 42 | 15% | 6.3 | Mixed |
| Market Stress | 45 | 10% | 4.5 | Elevated |
| Gold/Safe Haven | 38 | 5% | 1.9 | Neutral |
| Composite (PCRS) | 42 | 100% | 39.3 | Caution |
External Vulnerability Analysis (Risk: 28 — LOWEST)
The safest dimension of Pakistan's risk profile. FX reserves at $18.4B represent a 34% YoY improvement and 85% recovery from the $9.9B crisis low of 2022. At current monthly import levels (~$4.5B), reserve coverage stands at 4.1 months - above the 3-month IMF danger threshold but below the 6-month comfort zone.
The current account deficit has compressed to -0.03% of GDP (effectively balanced), driven by a 13% surge in remittances to $35.2B. PKR/USD has stabilized around 278 with only 2.1% YoY depreciation.
Quantitative concern: The SBP's target of $20.2B by December 2026 requires sustained IMF compliance. Any disruption to the 4th review (scheduled September) could reverse the reserve build.
The current account deficit has compressed to -0.03% of GDP (effectively balanced), driven by a 13% surge in remittances to $35.2B. PKR/USD has stabilized around 278 with only 2.1% YoY depreciation.
Quantitative concern: The SBP's target of $20.2B by December 2026 requires sustained IMF compliance. Any disruption to the 4th review (scheduled September) could reverse the reserve build.
Fiscal Health Analysis (Risk: 32 — LOW)
Significant improvement driven by IMF conditionality. The fiscal deficit has compressed from 7.3% of GDP (FY25) to 0.7% of GDP (FY26) - a 6.6 percentage point improvement. Public debt has declined from 72% to approximately 67% of GDP.
However, the fiscal risk of 32 (not lower) reflects structural vulnerabilities: tax-to-GDP remains low at ~9.5%, FBR collection is heavily dependent on import duties, and the primary surplus is fragile. The FY26 budget relies on one-off measures.
Quantitative watch: If the IMF program stalls, fiscal discipline could unravel rapidly. Historical data shows Pakistan's fiscal deficit widens by an average of 2.5pp within 12 months of IMF program exits.
However, the fiscal risk of 32 (not lower) reflects structural vulnerabilities: tax-to-GDP remains low at ~9.5%, FBR collection is heavily dependent on import duties, and the primary surplus is fragile. The FY26 budget relies on one-off measures.
Quantitative watch: If the IMF program stalls, fiscal discipline could unravel rapidly. Historical data shows Pakistan's fiscal deficit widens by an average of 2.5pp within 12 months of IMF program exits.
Inflation & Monetary Analysis (Risk: 58 — HIGHEST)
The most dangerous dimension and primary drag on the composite score. CPI inflation has re-accelerated from a low of 3.0% (Aug 2025) to 11.1% (Jun 2026) - a +8.1 percentage point swing in 10 months. Core NFNE at 8.5% confirms this is not merely a base-effect phenomenon.
The SBP policy rate at 11.5% produces a barely positive real rate of ~0.4% (11.5% - 11.1%). The 6-month rate-of-change in inflation is +8.1pp - one of the sharpest reversals in Pakistan's disinflation history.
Historical context: Pakistan's inflation risk has only been higher (above 60) during three episodes: (1) 2008 oil shock, (2) 2020 COVID supply disruption, and (3) 2023 post-flood crisis.
The SBP policy rate at 11.5% produces a barely positive real rate of ~0.4% (11.5% - 11.1%). The 6-month rate-of-change in inflation is +8.1pp - one of the sharpest reversals in Pakistan's disinflation history.
Historical context: Pakistan's inflation risk has only been higher (above 60) during three episodes: (1) 2008 oil shock, (2) 2020 COVID supply disruption, and (3) 2023 post-flood crisis.
Growth Momentum Analysis (Risk: 42)
Mixed signals across growth indicators. Real GDP growth at 3.7% (FY26) is an improvement from 3.1% in FY25. However, it remains below Pakistan's potential growth rate (estimated at 5-6%).
Credit to the private sector is growing at ~8% YoY - below nominal GDP growth, suggesting banks remain risk-averse. M2 growth at ~12% is consistent with SBP targets but does not signal aggressive credit expansion.
KSE-100 context: The index at 175,384 trades at a PER of 8.0x and dividend yield of ~6.5%. These valuations are attractive by historical standards (10-year average PER: 9.5x) but reflect the growth-inflation trade-off.
Credit to the private sector is growing at ~8% YoY - below nominal GDP growth, suggesting banks remain risk-averse. M2 growth at ~12% is consistent with SBP targets but does not signal aggressive credit expansion.
KSE-100 context: The index at 175,384 trades at a PER of 8.0x and dividend yield of ~6.5%. These valuations are attractive by historical standards (10-year average PER: 9.5x) but reflect the growth-inflation trade-off.
Global Economic Context - Public Data Analysis
Global Risk Pulse Index
62 / 100
How to read this: Using publicly available data from FRED, Trading Economics, and Yahoo Finance, we assess global conditions. The current reading of 62 indicates "Moderate Stress" (51-70 band).
Key Characteristic: Divergence between US economic strength (GDP +2.8% QoQ, unemployment 4.1%) and global manufacturing weakness (Global PMI 49.8, below 50 for 18 of last 24 months).
Impact on Pakistan: The global risk pulse of 62 is a net negative for Pakistan. While subdued DXY (99.16) reduces external debt pressure, elevated US 10Y yields (4.78%) close the door to international capital market access.
Global Indicator Matrix
| Indicator | Current | 12M Range | Percentile | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,477 | $3,600-$5,608 | 72nd | Elevated |
| DXY | 99.16 | 96.6-100.4 | 35th | Subdued |
| VIX | 14.53 | 12.5-22.2 | 25th | Complacent |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.78% | 3.6%-4.8% | 95th | Restrictive |
| Brent Crude | ~$82 | $68-$92 | 55th | Neutral |
| Global PMI | 49.8 | 48.5-52.1 | 30th | Contraction |
US Monetary Policy & Treasury Market
The dominant global risk factor for Pakistan. The US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.78% sits at the 95th percentile of its 12-month range. This reflects market pricing of a "higher-for-longer" Fed policy trajectory, with the terminal rate now expected to settle around 3.5-4.0%.
The real 10-year yield is approximately 2.1% - the highest since 2009. This tightens global financial conditions disproportionately for emerging markets like Pakistan that rely on external financing.
For Pakistan: Every 100bp rise in US 10Y yields increases Pakistan's external debt servicing burden by approximately $400-500M annually. At 4.78%, Pakistan's access to international capital markets is effectively closed - a hypothetical Pakistan Eurobond would cost 11-13%, which is fiscally unsustainable.
The real 10-year yield is approximately 2.1% - the highest since 2009. This tightens global financial conditions disproportionately for emerging markets like Pakistan that rely on external financing.
For Pakistan: Every 100bp rise in US 10Y yields increases Pakistan's external debt servicing burden by approximately $400-500M annually. At 4.78%, Pakistan's access to international capital markets is effectively closed - a hypothetical Pakistan Eurobond would cost 11-13%, which is fiscally unsustainable.
US Dollar & EM Capital Flows
The DXY at 99.16 is a constructive signal for Pakistan. The dollar index is trading at the 35th percentile of its 12-month range. This weakness reflects: (1) market pricing of Fed rate cuts beginning in Q4 2026, (2) narrowing US-EU growth differentials, and (3) political uncertainty ahead of US elections.
Capital flow data: EPFR-tracked EM equity funds saw $2.1B inflows in August 2026. However, frontier markets (including Pakistan) received only $120M of this. Pakistan's share of EM frontier flows has declined from 8% (2019) to 3% (2026).
For Pakistan: A weaker DXY reduces the rupee cost of dollar-denominated debt servicing and lowers imported inflation (Pakistan imports 80% of its petroleum). However, if the DXY breaks below 97.0, it could signal a global risk-off event.
Capital flow data: EPFR-tracked EM equity funds saw $2.1B inflows in August 2026. However, frontier markets (including Pakistan) received only $120M of this. Pakistan's share of EM frontier flows has declined from 8% (2019) to 3% (2026).
For Pakistan: A weaker DXY reduces the rupee cost of dollar-denominated debt servicing and lowers imported inflation (Pakistan imports 80% of its petroleum). However, if the DXY breaks below 97.0, it could signal a global risk-off event.
Cross-Market Correlation Matrix
Rolling 90-day correlations - key regime signals
| Pair | Correlation | vs 5Y Avg | Regime Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold / KSE-100 | -0.15 | +0.05 | Weak diversification |
| PKR/USD / DXY | +0.62 | +0.08 | Normal FX transmission |
| VIX / Pakistan CDS | +0.35 | -0.30 | Decoupling from global fear |
| US 10Y / KSE-100 | -0.48 | -0.12 | High sensitivity to US rates |
| Gold / DXY | +0.12 | -0.45 | Unusual co-movement |
| Brent / PKR/USD | +0.38 | +0.05 | Oil pressure on rupee |
Key insight: The most significant regime shift is the US 10Y / KSE-100 correlation at -0.48 - much stronger than the 5-year average of -0.12. This means Pakistan equities are now more sensitive to US monetary policy than at any point since 2019. Students of macroeconomics should monitor US 10Y yields as a leading indicator for Pakistan equity performance.
📄 Technical Document: PSXAI Risk Analyzer Platform
▼
1. Executive Summary
PSXAI Risk Analyzer is a free educational tool that aggregates publicly available macroeconomic data from sources including SBP, PSX, PBS, FRED, World Bank, and Yahoo Finance. The platform applies statistical methods (z-score normalization, correlation analysis) to publicly released data to create visual risk scores and trend indicators. We do not own, license, or control any of the underlying data. All information is sourced from public databases. PSXAI is not a registered securities adviser under SECP regulations and does not provide investment advice.
2. SRO Compliance Framework
PSXAI Risk Analyzer operates as an educational data aggregator in compliance with SECP guidelines:
- No Investment Advice: We do not recommend specific securities, bonds, gold products, or portfolio allocations.
- No Portfolio Management: We do not manage client assets or provide wealth management services.
- Educational Data Aggregation: All outputs are visualizations of publicly available data - risk scores, correlations, and trend indicators calculated from public sources.
- Source Attribution: All data cites primary public sources (SBP, PBS, PSX, FRED, World Bank) with direct links.
- No Data Ownership: We do not own, create, or control any data. All information is sourced from publicly available databases.
3. Pakistan Composite Risk Score (PCRS)
PCRS = 25% x External + 25% x Fiscal + 20% x Inflation/Monetary
+ 15% x Growth + 10% x MarketStress + 5% x Gold/SafeHaven
Normalization: z = (x - mu) / sigma [10-year panel, capped at +/- 3 sigma]
Sub-score = 50 + 16.67 x z [0-100 scale, higher = lower risk]
Interpretation:
0-30 = Severe Risk (Crisis regime)
31-50 = High Risk (Stressed regime)
51-70 = Elevated/Caution (Transition regime)
71-85 = Moderate (Stable regime)
86-100 = Strong (Expansion regime)
4. Data Sources We Aggregate
| Public Source | Data We Aggregate | Frequency | License |
|---|---|---|---|
| State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) | Policy rates, FX reserves, monetary aggregates, KIBOR | Weekly/Monthly | Public |
| Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) | KSE-100, sector indices, market data | Real-time | Public |
| Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) | CPI, LSM, trade, GDP | Monthly/Quarterly | Public |
| Ministry of Finance (MoF) | Fiscal deficit, debt, budget | Monthly/Quarterly | Public |
| All Pakistan Sarafa Jewellers | Gold rates per tola/10g | Daily | Public |
| FRED (Federal Reserve) | US macro, Treasury yields | Real-time | Public / Open Data |
| Yahoo Finance | Gold, DXY, VIX, equity indices | Real-time | Public API |
| Trading Economics | Global macro, EM data | Daily | Public |
| World Bank Open Data | GDP, debt, trade, development indicators | Quarterly/Annual | CC BY 4.0 |
| IMF WEO | Debt sustainability, GDP forecasts | Quarterly/Annual | Public |
5. Compliance Framework
- No portfolio recommendations: Risk scores and directional signals only ("risk-on / risk-off / neutral")
- No specific securities: No stock picks, bond recommendations, or target prices
- Data attribution: Every indicator cites primary source with direct link
- Disclaimer: "Informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice." displayed on every page
Data Source & Compliance Disclaimer: PSXAI Risk Analyzer does not own, license, or control any of the data displayed on this platform. All information is sourced from publicly available databases including the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Yahoo Finance, World Bank Open Data, and Trading Economics. We are not a registered securities adviser, broker, or portfolio manager under Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) regulations. We do not provide investment advice, portfolio recommendations, buy/sell recommendations, or securities research. This platform exists solely to aggregate public macroeconomic data into visual formats for educational purposes. Users must independently verify all data with primary sources and consult licensed financial professionals before making any financial decisions. Past performance of indicators does not guarantee future outcomes.